The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories is issued by the Energy Information Administration and it gauges the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by firms in the U.S.
The prices of petroleum products are influenced by the level of inventories, which invariably can bear on inflation.
On the fundamental side of thing, if we see a surge in crude inventories more than expected, it signals weaker demand and a decline for crude oil prices.
This is also true when we see less than expected decline in inventories.
Conversely, if we get a less than expected increase, this would mean greater demand and a signal for bullish crude prices.
This is also true when we get more than expected declines in inventories.
On the technical side, we have been able to combine the Relative Vigo Strength MT4 indicator, MACD-dot and KijunTenkan+ custom indicators to track trends during such releases.
Chart Setup
MetaTrader4 Indicators: Relative Vigor Strength.ex4 (default setting), MACD-dot.ex4 (width modified), KijunTenkan+.ex4 (width modified)
Preferred Time Frame(s): 1-Minute, 5-Minutes, 15-Minutes
Recommended Trading Sessions: 20-minutes after the release
Currency Pairs: Majors
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Trade Example (Click the image to enlarge)
Fig. 1.0
Strategy
Long Entry Rules
Place a buy order when the following chart patterns are in display 20-minutes after the release:
- If the green line of the Relative Vigor Strength MT4 indicator crosses the red line upwards below the 0.0000 level and pushes above the 0.0000 level, a buy signal is in order (Refer to Fig. 1.0).
- If the MACD-dot custom indicator forms a blue dot below price bars, it is a buy signal (Refer to Fig. 1.0).
- If the red line of the KijunTenkan+ custom indicator crosses the blue line upwards and price bar opens and closes above the lines, it is a buy signal (Refer to Fig. 1.0).
Stop Loss for Long Entry: Place stop loss below support.
Exit Strategy/Take Profit for Long Entry
The following conditions or rules will define an exit or take profit:
- If the Relative Vigor Strength MT4 indicator lines falls below the 0.0000 level, exit or take profit on position(s).
- If the MACD-dot custom indicator forms a red dot above price bars, exit or take profit on open order(s).
- If the red line of the KijunTenkan+ custom indicator crosses the blue line downwards, it is an exit or take profit signal on open long position(s).
Sell Entry Rules
Place a sell order if the following rules or conditions are in display 20 minutes after U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Data Release:
- If the green line of the Relative Vigor Strength MT4 indicator crosses the red line downward above the 0.0000, it is a sell alert.
- If the MACD-dot forms a red dot above price bars, it signals a reversal i.e. sell.
- If the red line of the KijunTenkan+ custom indicator crosses the blue line downwards, and a bearish candle opens and closes below the lines, it is a sell signal.
Stop Loss for Sell Entry: Place stop loss above resistance.
Exit Strategy/Take Profit for Sell Entry
Exit position(s) if the following chart pattern displays:
- If the green line of the Relative Vigor Strength MT4 indicator crosses the red line upwards below the 0.0000 level.
- If the MACD-dot forms a blue dot below price bars.
- If the red line of the KijunTenkan+ custom indicator crosses the blue line upwards.
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About The Trading Indicators
The Relative Vigor Strength is an oscillator that measures the bull market/bear market by gauging the closing price and the opening. It establishes the energy of a move by pinpointing where price would end at the close.
The MACD-dot custom indicator is built on the principles of the MACD MT4 indicator, but uses blue or red dot aligned below (buy) or above (sell) price bars respectively.
Finally, the KijunTenkan+ custom indicator is a trend following indicator with two line (red and blue), where their intersection below or above price is used to gauge trend.